Morgan Stanley, in a note to clients, suggested that Tesla’s vertical integration, along with its agile culture and youthful status, helped it overcome the chip shortage that hobbled the industry’s established companies. While some may be orders that are not delivered before the end of the quarter, the main point is Tesla is making more cars than it needs to. ![]() Production has now jumped from just 2,340 Model S and X made in the second-quarter to 8,941 in the third.Īnd in both quarters, Tesla also made around 5,000-6,000 more Model 3 and Model Ys than it delivered. Tesla’s third-quarter sales were in part boosted by the release of the 2022 versions of the Model S and the Model X, which has been finally given a design refresh and is now ramping up production after its assembly line was shut down earlier in the year to make way for the new premium EVs. It beat that by more than 13,000 vehicles, and the question that many are asking is, how did Tesla do it? And what are the deeper implications for the market at large? According to media reports, FactSet analysts forecast that Tesla would deliver roughly 227,000 vehicles in the quarter. Tesla’s latest figures more or less thumb the nose at America’s largest two carmakers. Likewise, GM has laid the blame for a 33% drop in sales year-on-year in its third-quarter reporting squarely on “semiconductor supply chain disruptions and historically low inventories.” Its third-quarter earnings report is yet to be released). (It did better than that but in July said it still did not expect sales to fully bounce back until the supply “normalised”. The well documented chip shortage has been driving down sales of many carmakers, with Ford predicting a 50% drop in sales due to the shortage for the second quarter. Unless, of course, Tesla beats Johnson's estimate considerably.Tesla has skidded into October with another record-beating quarter, reporting 241,300 deliveries for the third quarter of 2021, a number that has surprised pundits not only because it was well above predictions but also because it came in the midst of a global chip shortage. If his track record continues, and he's as wrong as he usually is, it may not be good for Tesla. ![]() This is because, over his career, he's had a reputation for being wrong about almost everything related to Tesla. We're not sure if Johnson's high number is a good thing or a bad thing. ![]() Johnson typically sets a very low bar for Tesla and is constantly making excuses online when he is wrong. The site points out that one of the biggest Tesla bears, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, has set his Q3 2021 Tesla delivery forecast at 223,000. What's arguably more interesting here comes from a recent article published by Teslarati. Piper Sandler and RBC are banking on 233,000 deliveries, and Credit Suisse suggests Tesla may deliver somewhere between 225,000 and 230,000. Tesla's current record comes in at 201,250 deliveries in Q2 2021. Electrek points out that a poll of Wall Street analysts shows a consensus of 222,700 Tesla vehicles delivered globally in Q3 2021. ![]() If their research and speculation are correct, Tesla could deliver more cars in Q3 2021 than it has ever delivered in a quarter in the past. Regardless of Musk's words, analysts on both sides of the aisle are projecting that Tesla will set another delivery record.
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